Navigating the Housing Affordability Crisis: The Path Forward

First-Time Buyers Are Older and Fewer

According to the 2025 annual NAR survey of buyers and sellers nationwide, the share of first-time home buyers dropped to a record low of 21%, while the median age of first-time buyers climbed to an all-time high of 40 years. For perspective: in 2010, first-time buyers made up 51% of purchases with a median age of 30. In 1995, they accounted for 42% with a median age of 31. Two observations stand out: first-time buyers are getting older, and there are fewer of them.

A Perfect Storm of Affordability Pressures

We are living through a perfect storm of pressures: higher home prices, rising costs of living, increasing insurance premiums, and the surge of inflation felt across every household expense. Mortgage rates have returned to their long-term historical norms after nearly a decade of unusually low rates. Development costs and regulatory burdens have pushed builders toward larger, more expensive homes and decreased the number of new homes being produced, limiting the starter-home supply that younger buyers once relied upon.

The Structural Forces Shrinking the Starter Home

Meanwhile, the average size of newly built homes has nearly tripled, from roughly 1,000 sq ft in the mid-20th century to more than 2,300 sq ft today. At the same time, the purchasing power of the dollar has weakened, and consumer debt has ballooned. Americans currently owe $1.81 trillion in student loans, with the average borrower carrying roughly $39,000 of debt. Easy access to credit, combined with aggressive marketing toward financially inexperienced young adults, has left many shackled before they ever begin building a financial foundation. And with 6.8 million men aged 25-54 choosing to not be in the labor force, the economic picture becomes more difficult for young households trying to gain traction.

The Path Forward: Timeless Principles

But the solution for younger generations is not despair, resignation, or the embrace of fashionable but destructive economic ideas. The path forward is a return to the timeless virtues that have always undergirded a free and flourishing society: character, discipline, work ethic, financial prudence, and personal responsibility. Young people today must be willing to be countercultural, and unashamed of being so. Seek wise mentorship early in life. Evaluate college not merely for its promises, but for its actual value. Work diligently. Live modestly. Save aggressively when income allows. Avoid debts that do not produce long-term value.

Think Creatively About Housing Options

Be willing to think creatively about housing. Pursuing smaller homes, multi-generational living, shared ownership, "middle housing," or income-producing options like duplexes and ADUs are all worth considering. Remember that just because something is possible doesn't mean it is wise. Circumstances will change. Markets will shift. Economic cycles will come and go. But the fundamentals required to navigate life responsibly and successfully have not changed and never will.

Stay the Course

For young adults willing to embrace these principles, opportunities still exist. The path to homeownership may be narrower today, but it is not closed. With discipline, creativity, and commitment to wise stewardship, the next generation can still build a stable foundation, both for their families and for the communities they hope to serve.

Douglas County Year-to-Date

Year-over-year home sale numbers in 2025 for Douglas County are looking very similar to the previous two years. We'll likely close out December in the range of 1,300-1,400 residential properties sold for the year. This is still down about 20% from the annual 1,600-1,800 numbers we saw in 2016-2022, but still far above the annual 800-900 lows experienced in 2008-2011. Noticeably, our average days on market have continued to edge upward each month since January 2025. Average DOM was remarkably stable at around 60 days for the entire 2024 year. In 2025, it's taking 2-3 weeks longer to sell a home, and increasing each month.